پایان نامه پخش بار سری زمانی

فهرست:

فصل اول: مقدمه

1-1- اهمیت مسئله. 2

1-2- پخش بار احتمالی.. 3

1-3- مروری بر کارهای انجام شده 12

1-4- اهداف پایان نامه. 24

1-5- ساختار پایان نامه. 25

فصل دوم: سری های زمانی

2-1- مقدمه. 27

2-2- مدلهای ARMA.. 27

2-2-1- فرآیندهای ایستا و ناایستا 27

2-2-2- فرآیندهای میانگین متحرک  (MA) 29

2-2-3- فرآیندهای خودبازگشتی (AR) 29

2-2-4- فرآیندهایARMA.. 30

2-2-5- فرآیندهای ARIMA.. 30

2-2-6- فرآیندهای SARIMA.. 31

2-2-7- فرآیندهای Multivariate ARMA.. 31

2-3- ویژگی مدل سریهای زمانی.. 32

2-3-1- توابع خود همبستگی و خود همبستگی جزیی.. 32

2-3-2- تعیین ایستایی وناایستایی سری های زمانی با استفاده از تابع ACF.. 35

2-3-3- شناسایی الگو با استفاده از توابع ACF و PACF.. 36

2-3-4- شرط ایستایی و وارون پذیری با توجه به ضرایب مدل.. 37

2-3-5- آ‍زمونهای تشخیص الگو. 38

فصل سوم: پخش بار سری زمانی

3-1- مقدمه. 40

3-2- پخش بار احتمالی.. 41

3-3- معرفی روش پخش بار فرمولاسیون4. 43

3-4- فرمول بندی روش پیشنهادی.. 47

3-5- شبیه سازی شبکه مورد مطالعه. 51

3-5-1- مدلسازی سری زمانی توان خروجی توربین بادی.. 52

3-5-2- مدلسازی توان اکتیو و راکتیو تزریقی.. 55

3-5-3- نتایج شبیه سازی.. 56

فصل چهارم: استفاده از پخش بار سری زمانی برای تغییر ساختار شبکه با هدف مینیمم کردن تلفات

4-1- مقدمه. 67

4-2- مسئله بازآرایی شبکه در سیستم های قدرت... 68

4-3- معرفی الگوریتم BPSO.. 70

4-4- استفاده از مدل های سری زمانی در بازآرایی شبکه. 71

4-5- نتایج شبیه سازی.. 73

4-5-1- شبکه مورد مطالعه. 73

4-5-2- نتایج.. 74

4-5-3- بررسی درستی روش پیشنهادی.. 77

فصل پنجم: استفاده از سری زمانی DAR برای مدلسازی پارامترهای گسسته در سیستم قدرت

5-1- مقدمه. 83

5-2- متغیرهای گسسته در سیستم قدرت... 84

5-2-1- مدلسازی تپ ترانس.... 84

5-2-2- مدلسازی واحدهای تولید پراکنده CHP.. 85

5-3- فرآیندهای خودبازگشتی گسسته (DAR) 87

5-3-1- معرفی مدل.. 87

5-3-2- انتخاب درجه مدل.. 88

5-3-3- بررسی درستنمائی مدل انتخاب شده 90

5-3-4- تخمین پارامترهای مجهول در مدل.. 92

5-4- نتایج شبیه سازی.. 93

فصل ششم: نتیجه گیری و پیشنهادات

6-1- نتیجه گیری.. 99

6-2- پیشنهادات... 100

ضمیمه

7-1- اطلاعات شبکه 14 باسه IEEE.. 102

7-2- اطلاعات شبکه 69 باسه. 104

منابع و مآخذ  108

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